According to ESPN's preseason FPI projections, the 49ers own a 6.8% chance of winning Super Bowl LXI, placing them among the NFL's top contenders heading into the 2026 season. While those odds trail division rivals Los Angeles (14.9%) and Seattle (7.0%), as well as two AFC powers, San Francisco remains in the upper tier of teams expected to win a championship. And if the 49ers can remain relatively healthy, there's no reason why they shouldn't be one of the teams in the running late in the season.
The projection comes after a year in which the 49ers exceeded expectations. Despite dealing with injuries and a roster that looked significantly different from previous seasons, San Francisco finished 12-5 and earned a road playoff victory. As the injuries mounted, fans began to think the 2025 season might end up like the injury-plagued 2024 season, which saw the 49ers finish 6-11 and miss the postseason.
During the 2025 offseason, the 49ers lost numerous key players to free agency and trade. But this offseason, the 49ers made some key moves that have many believing the team could be ready for a deep postseason run in 2026. According to ESPN, that is well within reach for the 49ers.
But it won't be easy. The 49ers reside in the NFL's best division, and despite winning 12 games during the 2025 regular season, they finished third in the NFC West. The Seahawks are the defending Super Bowl Champs, and the Rams have significantly upgraded their defense. But the 49ers should be better, as well, if they can stay healthy.
In addition to the Super Bowl winning likelihood, ESPN gave the 49ers the following chances:
- Projected wins: 10.2 (6th most in NFL)
- Playoffs %: 66.8 (8th best in NFL)
- Win division %: 26.1 (17th best in NFL)
- Make the Super Bowl %: 12.4 (5th best in NFL)
Written By:
Speaker. Writer. Covering the San Francisco 49ers. Host of the 49ers Camelot show.
YouTube.com/@49ersCamelot
Find the 49ers Camelot show wherever you listen to your podcasts!
All articles by Marc Adams
Marc Adams
Speaker. Writer. Covering the San Francisco 49ers. Host of the 49ers Camelot show.
YouTube.com/@49ersCamelot
Find the 49ers Camelot show wherever you listen to your podcasts!
All articles by Marc Adams
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