The San Francisco 49ers and Robert Saleh's defense were exposed by Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in a 24-34 prime time defeat that was never really close. The Niners will remain at their home away from home as they host former 49ers quarterback and possible comeback player of the year in Alex Smith and a streaking Washington Football Team that has won three straight and just knocked off what was the final remaining undefeated team in the NFL. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
When: Sunday December 13th, 2020 at 1:25 pm PST (FOX)
Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Line: 49ers -3, o/u 43.5
Washington Football Team
The Washington Football Team has won three straight behind strong defense and the gutsy play of Alex Smith, coming off of a 23-17 upset of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
After thirteen weeks, Washington is ranked 30th in passing offense defense-adjusted value over replacement (DVOA) at -18.4 percent, 17th in rushing offense DVOA at -7.9 percent, and 25th with 22.0 points per game. Washington's defense is 3rd in passing defense DVOA at -11.3 percent, 10th in rushing defense DVOA at -17.8 percent, and 8th with 21.7 points allowed per game.
Alex Smith is 30th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at -245, 32nd with total quarterback rating (QBR) of 40.8 with 4 touchdowns passing, 5 interceptions, and zero fumbles lost, completing 68.7 percent of his passes. Washington ranks 15th in Football Outsiders' weighted total DVOA at 0.0 percent, 27th in weighted offensive DVOA at -15.4 percent, and 4th in weighted defensive DVOA at -14.3 percent. Washington's offensive line is ranked 27th in pass protection and 15th in adjusted line yards, while its defensive line is 4th in adjusted sack rate and 7th in adjusted line yards. The Football Team is 7-5 against the spread (ATS) and 5-7 to the over/under.
San Francisco 49ers
After thirteen weeks, the Niners offense is 21st in passing offense DVOA at 13.2 percent, 18th in rushing offense DVOA at -8.9 percent, and 20th with 23.8 points per game. San Francisco's defense is 16th in passing defense DVOA at 9.4 percent, 8th in rushing defense DVOA at -20.2 percent, and 13th with 24.0 points allowed per game.
Nick Mullens is 22nd in DYAR at 161, 29th with QBR of 48.8 with 9 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, and 2 fumbles lost, completing 67.4 percent of his passes. San Francisco ranks 14th in weighted total DVOA at 0.8 percent, 20th in weighted offensive DVOA at -3.3 percent, and 11th in weighted defensive DVOA at -4.1 percent. San Francisco's offensive line is ranked 7th in pass protection and 28th in adjusted line yards, while its defensive line is 22nd in adjusted sack rate and 8th in adjusted line yards. The Niners are 5-7 ATS and 6-6 to the over/under.
Prediction
San Francisco opened up as a 4.5-point favorite against the Washington Football Team but after how bad the Niners looked last Monday, compared to how good the Football Team looked, it's no wonder that money has come in on Washington, shrinking the spread down to 3 points. But would it be recency bias to base our prediction for this game on how the teams looked last week?
We have to admit our own susceptibility to recency bias in picking the Niners the weeks after their strong wins at the New York Giants, New England Patriots, and at the Los Angeles Rams and have discerned some semblance of a zig-zag pattern with their performances. Based on the Niners looking horrendous last week, we anticipate a much stronger performance in Week 14.
Similarly, the Washington Football Team and Alex Smith are darlings of the NFL following their Thanksgiving demolition of the Dallas Cowboys and comeback win to hand the Pittsburgh Steelers their first loss of 2020, and bettors being high on Washington based on the last three weeks has moved this line in San Francisco's favor, but the Football Team could be due for a let down.
Washington had a great spot against Pittsburgh, having last played a blow-out win on Thanksgiving (11/26), while Pittsburgh last played an ugly divisional game against the Baltimore Ravens on a Tuesday (12/2) with less organized practice due to COVID-19, and that situation contributed to Washington pulling off the upset.
But now after traveling to Dallas and Pittsburgh, Washington will play its third straight game on the road, traveling to Arizona to face a 49ers team that was embarrassed in prime time, possibly without starting running back Antonio Gibson who is dealing with turf toe.
Robert Saleh's defenses have struggled at times against mobile quarterbacks and even though Alex Smith has had some ability to scramble in the past, he is no Josh Allen and we expect the Niners defense to be chomping at the bit to get at Washington's 28th-ranked offense after getting relentlessly gashed by the Buffalo Bills.
Nick Mullens actually has a better DYAR and QBR than Alex Smith and in this contest where recency bias is causing the market to overreact to last week and overvalue the Football Team and undervalue the Niners, we will take the side with the most value: Pick: 49ers -3.
2020 Season ATS
4-7
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