What would qualify as a disaster for the San Francisco 49ers in 2026? Missing the playoffs entirely after returning to the postseason last year despite battling through an injury-plagued campaign would certainly fit the description.
That's exactly what Gilberto Manzano of Sports Illustrated predicts in his NFC projections for the upcoming season. Manzano has the 49ers finishing third in the NFC West for the second straight year. Unlike last season, however, he doesn't believe a third-place finish will be enough to secure a playoff berth.
Manzano projects San Francisco to finish 8-9, citing concerns about the roster's age, injury history, and demanding travel schedule. He predicts the Los Angeles Rams will win the division at 13-4, while the Seattle Seahawks will claim a Wild Card spot at 12-5.
The projected decline comes after a busy NFL offseason in which the 49ers reshaped their wide receiver room and continued rebuilding the defensive front. Still, Manzano believes those moves won't be enough for San Francisco to keep pace in one of the NFL's most competitive divisions.
"The 49ers might be expecting too much from Mike Evans, the soon-to-be 33-year-old receiver who missed nine games due to injury during his final season with the Bucs," Manzano wrote. "As for another concern, wide receivers Christian Kirk and Ricky Pearsall have struggled to stay healthy.
"This is an aging roster that has dealt with several injuries in recent seasons. Now, San Francisco has to travel 38,100 miles in 2026 and starts the season with a 15-hour flight to Australia to face the hated Rams. Too many red flags here."
The Australia opener won't be the 49ers' only international matchup in 2026. San Francisco is also scheduled to host the Minnesota Vikings in Mexico City during Week 11. In addition, four of the team's final six games will come on the road, including matchups against the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs. That could be a challenging way to close out the regular season.
Still, Manzano acknowledged that the NFL schedule makers gave the 49ers a favorable stretch following their season-opener overseas.
"But I'll admit, I almost changed my record prediction after seeing how the league scheduled the 49ers after the Week 1 trip to Australia," Manzano wrote. "The 49ers have four home games in the next five weeks, with a short road trip to Seattle sandwiched between Miami, Arizona, Denver, and Washington."
In Manzano's NFC projections, the Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, New Orleans Saints, and Rams win their respective divisions. The Chicago Bears, Vikings, and Seahawks round out the conference's Wild Card teams.
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