The San Francisco 49ers offense came out a bit flat after playing at elevation but the defense ensured it would not matter in a 13-0 shut out of the New Orleans Saints in Week 12. Now long-time associates turned opponents will lead their respective first place teams in the most anticipated match up of NFL Week 13, when Mike McDaniel returns to the Bay with the Miami Dolphins to take on the Niners and Kyle Shanahan at Levi's Stadium. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
- When: Sunday December 4, 2022 at 1:05 p.m. PT (FOX)
- Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
- Line: 49ers -4, o/u 46.5
Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins took care of business against the Houston Texans, racing out to a 30-0 half-time lead and cruising to a never-in-doubt 30-15 victory for their fifth straight win. Former Niner Jeff Wilson Jr. ran for 39 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries, Tua Tagovailoa completed 22 of 36 passes for 299 yards and a touchdown and Miami's defense recovered a Jordan Akins fumble, sacked Kyle Allen 5 times and intercepted him twice.
After twelve weeks, Miami ranks 8th in total weighted DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at 15.9 percent, 2nd in total weighted offensive DVOA at 23.4 percent with a 1st ranked offensive pass DVOA at 48.9 and 14th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -3.4 percent. The Dolphins defense is rated 18th in total weighted defensive DVOA at 2.5 percent with a 25th rated defensive pass DVOA at 13.1 percent and 12th rated defensive rush DVOA at -12.8 percent.
Tua Tagovailoa is 2nd in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 1,166 and 1st in total QBR at 82.8 with 19 touchdown passes, 3 interceptions, 0 fumbles lost and a 70.0 completion percentage. Miami's offensive line is 12th in run blocking with 4.50 adjusted line yards and 13th in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 6.2 percent. The Dolphins' defensive line is 5th against the run with 3.88 adjusted line yards and 22nd with an adjusted sack rate of 6.0 percent.
The Dolphins are 6-5 ATS and 5-6 to the over/under. Miami is 5-2 ATS after a win, 4-1 to the over/under as the away team. Tackles Terron Armstead and Austin Jackson, running back Raheem Mostert and receiver Tyreek Hill are questionable for Week 13.
San Francisco 49ers
Samson Ebukam and Dre Greenlaw each recovered key fumbles, Nick Bosa sacked Andy Dalton, and Talanoa Hufanga and Fred Warner tallied 9 and 7 tackles, respectively, in ending the New Orleans streak of 332 games without a shutout, which had been the longest active streak in the NFL.
After twelve weeks, San Francisco ranks 6th in total weighted DVOA at 19.4 percent, 8th in total weighted offensive DVOA at 10.4 percent with a 5th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 28.3 percent and 21st ranked offensive rush DVOA at -7.5 percent. The 49er defense is rated 5th in total weighted defensive DVOA at -9.5 percent with a 10th rated defensive pass DVOA at -2.5 percent and 2nd rated defensive rush DVOA at -24.2 percent.
Jimmy Garoppolo is 3rd in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 783 and 17th in total QBR at 53.9 with 16 touchdown passes, 4 interceptions, 2 fumbles lost and a 67.7 completion percentage. San Francisco's offensive line is 6th in run blocking with 4.65 adjusted line yards and 9th in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 6.0 percent. The Niners' defensive line is 2nd against the run with 3.54 adjusted line yards and 8th with an adjusted sack rate of 8.1 percent.
The 49ers are 6-5 ATS and 4-7 to the over/under. San Francisco is 3-1 ATS as a home favorite, 0-3 ATS in non-conference games, 0-4 to the over/under as a home favorite, 2-7 to the over/under as a favorite. Running back Elijah Mitchell, defensive tackle Arik Armstead and tight end Tyler Kroft are out, guard Spencer Buford, running back Christian McCaffrey and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo are questionable for Week 13.
Prediction
It was Mike Shanahan who gave Mike McDaniel his first coaching internship, so McDaniel facing Kyle Shanahan is not exactly student versus teacher, but the two head coaches in this Week 13 match up spent 14 seasons working together, accumulating an intimate knowledge of one another. But which coach will have the edge in using his understanding of the other to take advantage on the field of play this Sunday?
If Niners Empire is being honest with itself, it will have to admit that San Francisco's 2022 offense and all of its weapons have fallen short of expectations, currently ranked 10th in total offensive DVOA, whereas the 2021 49ers offense, with Mike McDaniel as the offensive coordinator, finished 5th in total offensive DVOA. Did losing Mike McDaniel cause a decline in San Francisco's offensive production?
The 2021 Miami Dolphins finished 24th in total offensive DVOA and Tua Tagovailoa finished 18th in total QBR but with McDaniel in charge the 2022 Dolphins rank 2nd in total offensive DVOA and Tagovailoa is 1st in total QBR. Sure, Tyreek Hill helped the unit but that significant improvement is due in large part to coaching, and one has to speculate on whether the Yale-grad, who was the first rookie coach in Miami Dolphins history to win his debut game, might have a coaching advantage over his former head coach.
While Patrick Mahomes may get all the credit for being the top quarterback in the league, Tua Tagovailoa is quietly the NFL's leader in total QBR and having an MVP caliber season. Do Niners fans remember what happened when Mahomes came to Levi's? While the 49ers defense is stout against the run, the passing defense can be vulnerable as evidenced by Mahomes throwing for 423 yards and 3 touchdowns, and Juju Smith-Schuster and Marques Valdes-Scantling going for 124 and 111 receiving yards respectively, and now it will face the top rated passing attack in the league with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle stretching the field.
Tua Tagovailoa this season:
🎯 91.2 Passing Grade (1st)
— PFF (@PFF) November 28, 2022
🎯 115.7 Passer Rating (1st)
🎯 9.0 Yards Per Attempt (1st) pic.twitter.com/3u97JV13Na
Some might argue that Miami's win streak has come against terrible teams and that the Dolphins have not seen a defense like San Francisco's, but New England, Buffalo and the New York Jets are all ranked higher than San Francisco in total defensive DVOA and the Dolphins beat New England and Buffalo at home while losing to the Jets on the road while Tua was out with a concussion. On the flipside, San Francisco's last four wins came against New Orleans, Arizona, the Chargers and Rams, not exactly world-beaters either.
With Christian McCaffrey nursing an injury and Elijah Mitchell out, San Francisco's run game, and subsequently its offense, could be less potent this week. Jimmy Garoppolo is also hobbled, and since we are going to give the coaching edge to Mike McDaniel, we would lean to taking the points with Miami if picking a side in this contest between two good teams. But with Miami almost certain to put up points and San Francisco needing to lean more on the passing game due to injury and to target the Dolphins 25th ranked pass defense, we see an accumulation of points as the best bet.
Pick: Over 46.5
2022 Season ATS: 6-8
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