An injured San Francisco 49ers defense got run over and its offense gave the ball away and was rendered impotent in an ugly, 14-28 loss to the Atlanta Falcons in Week 6. The Niners cannot afford to waste time feeling sorry for themselves as they will now face Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs coming off of a loss. Here we discuss the odds and analysis from a betting perspective.
- When: Sunday October 23rd, 2022 at 1:25pm PT (FOX)
- Where: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
- Line: 49ers +2.5; o/u 48.5
Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs were edged 20-24 by a last minute touchdown to lose the latest chapter in its building rivalry with the Buffalo Bills. Patrick Mahomes threw for 338 yards but was intercepted twice and sacked three times.
After six weeks, Kansas City ranks 6th in total DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) adjusted for variation early (DAVE) at 9.3 percent, 2nd in offensive DAVE at 14.5 percent with a 2nd ranked offensive pass DVOA at 36.2 percent and 19th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -8.3 percent. The Chiefs defense is rated 28th in defensive DAVE at -6.0 percent with a 28th rated defensive pass DVOA at 17.6 percent and 13th rated defensive rush DVOA at -8.1 percent.
Patrick Mahomes is 2nd in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 606 and 3rd in total QBR at 74.2 with 17 touchdown passes, 4 interceptions and a 65.9 completion percentage. Kansas City's offensive line is 21st in run blocking with 4.34 adjusted line yards and 7th in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 4.9 percent. The Chiefs' defensive line is 22nd against the run with 4.67 adjusted line yards and 12th with an adjusted sack rate of 7.5 percent.
The Chiefs are 2-4 ATS and 3-3 to the over/under. Cornerback Trent Duffie has been placed on IR, running back Ronald Jones II, defensive end Joshua Kaindoh, cornerback Rashad Fenton and safety Bryan Cook are questionable for Week 7.
San Francisco 49ers
After six weeks, San Francisco ranks 8th in total DAVE at 7.9 percent, 14th in offensive DAVE at 1.4 percent with a 7th ranked offensive pass DVOA at 25.3 percent and 26th ranked offensive rush DVOA at -13.0 percent. The 49er defense is rated 3rd in defensive DAVE at -8.9 percent with a 7th rated defensive pass DVOA at -13.2 percent and 1st rated defensive rush DVOA at -23.1 percent.
Jimmy Garoppolo is 7th in defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) at 385 and 22nd in total QBR at 41.1 with 7 touchdown passes, 3 interceptions and a 64.0 completion percentage. San Francisco's offensive line is 24th in run blocking with 4.15 adjusted line yards and 10th in pass protection with adjusted sack rate of 5.6 percent. The Niners' defensive line is 2nd against the run with 3.61 adjusted line yards and 3rd with an adjusted sack rate of 9.8 percent.
The 49ers are 3-3 ATS and 1-5 to the over/under. Tight end Tyler Kroft, defensive tackle Arik Armstead, defensive end Nick Bosa, wide receiver Danny Gray and safety Talanoa Hufanga are questionable, while safety Jimmie Ward and offensive tackle Trent Williams are attempting to return from injuries but have not been ruled out.
Prediction
Though not having Hufanga, Bosa, Armstead or Williams would make a world of difference, this weeks handicapping will not be about X's or O's or personnel but rather will be based off of betting strategy and market analysis.
Last week, the 49ers looked inept. Jimmy Garoppolo looked like the "bad Jimmy" that has led to legions of Niners fans to blame him for all of the 49ers woes and clamor for his extrusion. Though the Chiefs lost, it was to the Super Bowl favorite Buffalo Bills on a last minute touchdown, and almost every casual observer would expect Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City to have no problem dispatching the downtrodden San Francisco squad.
So why would the Chiefs be favored by less than a field goal? The sportsbooks are enticing casual bettors to take Kansas City at this price and it's not because they want the public to win.
In the Kyle Shanahan era, 49ers against the spread per @Bet_Labs:
Favorite: 17-26-1 ATS ❌
Underdog: 28-18 ATS ✅@49ers -1.5 vs. Rams.
— John Ewing 🦁 (@johnewing) October 3, 2022
While it is often questionable to take Kyle Shanahan's 49ers team as a favorite, bettors do much better when they take him as an underdog, and with the books begging the public to take the Chiefs at this line, we will also take him as an underdog for both the full game and first half. On Sunday the line was Chiefs -3 but is now -2.5 at all books, indicating that the money has come in on San Francisco.
Pick: 49ers +2.5
Bonus Pick: 49ers (1H) +1
2022 Season ATS: 4-3
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